29 year-old Outfielder and the pursuit of the lowest War ever

29 year-old Outfielder and the pursuit of the lowest War ever

Is losing curable? The past few seasons in MLB have certainly tested that hope for some teams and, by extension, the players on those teams. It’s unavoidable, because bad teams invariably feature players having bad seasons.

The 2024 season might see a new rock bottom, as the Chicago White Sox currently own the third-worst winning percentage since World War II (.267), trailing only the 1962 New York Mets and 2003 Detroit Tigers.

The magic win numbers for the White Sox are 39 and 43. The latter number would allow the ChiSox to sidestep the all-time record-low .235 winning percentage of the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics, as a 39-123 mark would leave Chicago at .241. And of course the 43 wins would mean avoiding the all-time loss record of 120, held by those ’62 Mets.

Those are low bars to clear and on the strength of plain, old statistical regression, the White Sox are a long shot to drop below either historical threshold. It’s really hard to lose that many games. In my last run of simulations, the White Sox had a 2.7% shot at finishing with 38 or fewer wins and a 12.1% probability to match or exceed the ’62 Mets. Uncomfortably high odds to be sure but the chances are still quite long.

There is one wild card in this scenario that simulations can’t yet account for: The White Sox roster we see now is not the one that’s likely to see the field over the last two-plus months of the regular season.

Chicago will probably attempt to acquire as much future value as it can and one clear way to do that is to trade players who might bring back that value. In the short term, that can mean getting even worse.