Report: Raiders set to risk $89m for talented QB
Las Vegas Raiders: What may it cost to trade up for the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL Draft?
This past weekend, NFL insiders suggested that we could see a draft shakeup that involves the New England Patriots’ No. 3 overall pick. Other reporters believe the Las Vegas Raiders may have an interest in an aggressive move for a quarterback.
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo, owner Mark Davis and head coach Antonio Pierce will prioritize the need for a quarterback in the offseason.
Why the Raiders could pull off a trade with Patriots
Who could the Raiders call about a potential trade?
Well, even though the Patriots have a question mark at quarterback, ESPN’s Dan Graziano believes the club could address the position in free agency and then move its first-round draft pick.
“The Patriots also need a quarterback, but there are people around the league who believe they are open to trading the No. 3 selection, moving back in the draft and addressing the quarterback position in free agency. If the Pats do trade that pick — which could be Daniels or Maye — the two teams I’d keep an eye on are the Falcons (moving from the No. 8 spot) and the Vikings (moving from the No. 11 spot, assuming they don’t bring back Cousins).”
While we should be careful about believing anything about a team’s draft plans in February, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah thinks a handful of clubs will make a push to move up because of early underwhelming thoughts about the 2025 quarterback class, and The Athletic’s Vic Tafur added on to the speculation around the Patriots’ No. 3 overall selection.
Before you shut down these rumors as a smokescreen, keep in mind that New England continues to conduct business in an unorthodox fashion. Since the Patriots parted ways with Bill Belichick, who served as their head coach and de facto general manager, they have yet to hire someone to fill the latter position in the front office.
For now, New England will move forward with a “collaborative” approach to making roster personnel decisions. In other words, we have no idea who’s the primary shot-caller, what that person thinks of who might be available with the No. 3 pick and how that individual views the Patriots quarterback room, which includes Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.
With the element of the unknown, you cannot rule out anything, right?
A possible trade package for the No. 3 pick
Let’s say the Patriots are at least open to hearing offers for their top pick. What would it cost from the Raiders’ perspective?
Look no further than the San Francisco 49ers’ blockbuster trade with the Miami Dolphins from the 2021 offseason.
The 49ers made the jump from the 12th spot to No. 3 in order to select quarterback Trey Lance, giving up a total of three first-round picks and a third-rounder.
Ultimately, the deal didn’t pan out for the 49ers, who traded Lance to the Dallas Cowboys last offseason. Fortunately for San Francisco, general manager John Lynch took Brock Purdy in the following draft, and he’s turned into a pleasant surprise, leading the league in multiple passing metrics for the 2023 campaign.
With that said, just because the move from the middle of the first round to a top-three spot didn’t work out for the 49ers, doesn’t mean it will backfire on the Raiders.
Lance came into the league with limited playing experience, and he suffered a season-ending ankle injury early in 2022, which opened the door for Jimmy Garoppolo and then Purdy to take over the starting job.
Why Raiders should be aggressive with their QB plan
If the Raiders think their franchise quarterback will be available with the No. 3 overall pick, they should go for it because a decade-long quality starter at the most important position is worth the cost.
Just think about teams that spend draft capital and money on quarterbacks year after year. Over time, some of those clubs sacrifice a ton of resources in attempts to find their franchise signal-caller anyway, but it happens over several years, which makes it less jarring than moving capital all at once.
Yes, the Raiders have roster voids to fill on both sides of the ball but don’t forget they’re working with a little more than $36 million in cap space. The club can clear another $20-plus million if it moves on from Garoppolo, who’s owed $11.25 million if he’s on the roster by the fifth day of the new league year (March 18) and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow.
If the Raiders, like the 49ers, give up only one draft pick in the year of their blockbuster trade, they would still have eight 2024 picks to use on other draft needs.
Also, note that the Raiders may have to give up a little more than the 49ers in a trade because they would have to outbid other potential suitors and convince the Patriots to pass on a top quarterback prospect. When the 49ers and Dolphins agreed on their transaction, Miami had a starting signal-caller in Tua Tagovailoa going into his second term. Perhaps Las Vegas tosses in another early-round 2026 pick.
By then, Las Vegas could receive compensation picks or trade a player to recover draft capital that it sent to New England in a potential deal.
Remember, the NFL draft isn’t an exact science. While we think the top draft gurus know how a player will translate from the college ranks to the pros, none of us know for sure.
However, teams like the Raiders shouldn’t be afraid to take a swing for a potential franchise quarterback. While anyone can point to several scenarios that didn’t work out for the team that traded up such as the 49ers with Lance or the New York Jets who moved up from No. 6 to No. 3 for Sam Darnold, don’t forget the clubs that benefitted in those trade-up scenarios to become perennial playoff contenders in the AFC.
The Kanas City Chiefs moved from 27th to the 10th spot for Patrick Mahomes in 2017. The Buffalo Bills made the leap from 12th to the No. 7 spot for Josh Allen in 2018. Later in that draft, the Baltimore Ravens traded into the first round to select Lamar Jackson.
Yes, the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens had winning records and recent playoff appearances before they made their respective moves for a quarterback and didn’t have to give up three first-rounders to execute those transactions, but if they did, wouldn’t you still say it was worth it?
Mahomes will keep the Chiefs’ Super Bowl window open for as long as he’s healthy. Allen has helped lead the Bills to four consecutive AFC East titles. Jackson is a two-time league MVP, and the Ravens have clinched a playoff spot in five out of six years with him.
Whatever the cost, Mahomes, Allen and Jackson are worth the sacrifice in draft capital.
Free agency will shed light on Raiders QB search
As for the Raiders, their free-agency plan will likely dictate how much of a push the front office makes for the No. 3 pick, if at all.
Pierce has already said that he expects to add a quarterback to compete with Aidan O’Connell for the starting job.
The Raiders could lose three starting offensive linemen from the previous season. Right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor, right guard Greg Van Roten and center Andre James will be free agents in March.
Moreover, Las Vegas has a crucial decision to make on whether to re-sign running back Josh Jacobs, who became the focal point of the offense after Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels, though in his absence, Zamir White emerged as a viable ball-carrier.
Also, keep in mind that the team will need to address the boundary cornerback position with Amik Robertson set to become a free agent. The front office should also add to rotations at defensive tackle and linebacker.
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