Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks

With only 8 teams left in the NFL season, the market is quite competitive. Contrary to common misconception, this does not imply that most games end around the closing number; rather, oddsmakers get increasingly adept at identifying the theoretical “middle” of public perception. The Tampa Bay Bucs’ current perception could not be greater. I assumed Tampa Bay would be one of the least successful teams in the NFL this season, but Baker Mayfield and a dedicated, veteran group have turned that idea upside down. The Bucs, who have won six of their previous seven games and eliminated last year’s #1 seed one week ago, are now in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Who could have seen that coming?

Tampa Bay is built on a strong defense led by one of the NFL’s brightest defensive minds (head coach Todd Bowles), and its offense is adept at weathering storms thanks to the Mayfield effect. Mayfield has been a spark plug for the Bucs this season, providing the energizing boost they needed after losing the peerless Tom Brady as their quarterback just one year ago. And if you didn’t know about Mayfield’s fighting mindset and clutch ability, his performance against the Birds last week was a terrific showcase (22-for-36, 337 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions).

The problem with this spread isn’t the Bucs; it’s their opponent. Tampa Bay will face a significant increase in competitiveness on Sunday, and I am not confident that it is prepared to do so. Of course, we could just look back at evidence from earlier this year, when the Detroit Lions trounced the Bucs in Tampa in Week 6, but we require more than a single game sample size. The reality is that the Bucs are a poor matchup for the Lions, particularly in Michigan. Detroit’s wide receivers and running backs are all about speed on their home field, and only the Packers and Seahawks (in overtime in Week 2) could keep up with them. TB’s seasoned defense is

That means Mayfield and the Bucs’ pass offense, which ranks as “average” in all season-long statistics, will under enormous pressure to keep the visitors in the game. And, as much as I admire Mayfield and his comeback story, Tampa Bay’s output has been limited this season by strong defenses.

The Bucs’ triumph over the Eagles was remarkable, but let’s be honest: it was more about their opponent’s unexpected demise. Philadelphia was lifeless last Monday night. Now, the Bucs must travel to Ford Field to face a franchise and culture that is everything from lifeless. Detroit will be rocking, head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressive attitude counteracts Mayfield’s moxie, and the Lions’ hyper-speed offense is extremely difficult for other opponents to compete with—especially

The total is big in an NFC matchup, but that’s largely due to the Lions’ powerful offense. It probably doesn’t hurt that the Bucs performed well last week, scoring 32 points against last year’s conference champion. I’m not convinced it should be this high. Tampa Bay’s offense is good but not outstanding, as proven by all offensive metrics this season. Baker Mayfield can surely climb and launch his team when needed, but traveling to Ford Field and playing in front of Detroit’s loud crowd will be a challenge. We’ve seen a Lions defense capable of playing “above expectations” in several situations before (see Week 18 last season at Green Bay, or last weekend when they held Matthew Stafford and.